Essential Strategies For Winning At Daily Fantasy Sports

1. Essential Strategies For Winning At Daily Fantasy Sports Picks
2. Essential Strategies For Winning At Daily Fantasy Sports News
3. Essential Strategies For Winning At Daily Fantasy Sports
4. Essential Strategies For Winning At Daily Fantasy Sports Betting
5. Essential Strategies For Winning At Daily Fantasy Sports Illustrated

• How about double overtime? That is the one of the best feelings in the world. The only feeling better than that would be winning all the money by taking down a large field tournament. The goal of this article is to give you the keys to becoming a winning NBA Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) player! Rosters & Scoring. Roster construction is simple on.
• Play Mostly Cash Games. Regardless of the DFS sport you prefer, you’re going to want to stick largely to cash games. These games (H2H, 50/50, etc) give you roughly a 50% chance of winning each time out and are the bread and butter of the daily fantasy sports industry.

Daily Fantasy Football Strategies. Playing Daily Fantasy Football in a league such as DraftKings.com allows you to pick different teams depending on how many opponents you are facing or how many players are in a particular fantasy football tournament. When making your choices for your Salary Cap league or Pick’Em league or even a Snake Draft league, using the draft strategies below will.

Fantasy sports have reached massive heights in the United States, and their transformation into a multi-billion dollar industry is largely down to the NFL. Of the season-long leagues, those aimed at football are by far the most popular. The same is true of daily fantasy, despite there being a limited number of games compared to other sports.

Each week of the NFL season is filled with DFS action, and guaranteed prize pools are growing larger and larger with each successive year. There are now multiple qualifiers for giant contests, and some NFL competitions come with multi-million dollar prize pools. Several of these elite tournaments even have top prizes of $1 million or more.

Daily fantasy sites are often judged on the quality of their NFL contests, and their other offerings tend to take a bit of a backseat. This is unfair, but it is also the reality. The league is the crown jewel of fantasy sports, both in daily leagues and those played year round.

Choosing a Site

The rules and roster size of the contests you choose will be decisive factors when building your lineup. These will help you decide which types of player to target.

The most crucial difference between sites is whether the leagues are points-per-reception or half-points. Points-per-reception scoring is abbreviated as PPR in fantasy circles. This affects wide receivers and tight ends, but running backs that catch a lot of passes are affected as well. I will go deeper into this subject when speaking about wide receivers, but it’s the most significant scoring to consider when building your weekly NFL lineup.

Most sites have a few other scoring differences, but the one that matters more than most think is defensive scoring. At some sites, defense is an afterthought, but at others there is big-time potential to either score or lose a lot of points depending on your chosen defense.

The greatest difference tends to concern roster size and positions. The vast majority of sites have just one quarterback spot, but some offer two QBs. The most notable site to offer two quarterbacks is DraftStreet. DraftStreet is also one of the few sites not to have kickers. I personally like this, as I find picking kickers to be an annoyance that often relies more on luck than sound judgment. Other differences include utility spots, the number of wide receivers etc.

The differences in scoring and roster size are obviously something to be aware of. A lineup at one site may not transfer well to others, not perhaps because of price, but because of roster makeup and scoring differences. All this stuff becomes second-nature once players begin to play on a regular basis.

Analyzing Betting Lines

As I mentioned in other sport-specific articles, betting lines are a vital factor to consider when building your lineup. The oddsmakers aren’t always right in their predictions, but they usually end up being close in their projections.

Totals are the biggest factor to consider when building your lineup. Games with higher totals will generally be higher scoring than those with lower numbers. Focusing on games with higher totals is never a bad strategy. Of course, don’t eliminate players from consideration just because their game has a low total – this is simply one part of building a successful lineup.

The average NFL score is 41 points, and most totals range between 40-50 points. High scoring affairs can hit the mid-50s. At the lower end, they can dip under 40, although it’s rare for totals to go below 38 points.

Building Your Lineup

For reading purposes, I’ll go position by position in this section, and offer up specifics on what to look for when building your lineup. In the DFS world, players are evaluated in terms of viability in both cash games and tournaments.

Cash games refer to head-to-head games, 50/50s or double ups, and other low number games, such as three-man contests. Other contests, like 6-man games (or larger) count in this category as well. The idea in these types of games is to have a strong baseline of points or a solid floor.

In these contests, you’re simply trying to place in the money. Fielding a lineup with loads of upside potential but more risk isn’t necessary. Going with proven commodities and near-guaranteed points is the way to go.

The reverse is true for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), which are large field tournaments. In these contests, you will need to field a lineup that can beat hundreds or thousands of other entries. This means expanding your potential roster pool and searching for upside.

GPPs can be extremely lucrative, but the best daily fantasy veterans make their living on cash games on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis. Cash games are the lifeblood of the industry as a whole, and an excellent way to build your bankroll in the beginning. They’re also the best way to keep bringing in consistent profits.

I will go deeper into GPP strategy and the differences between tournaments and cash games later in this article. However, each position I cover in the next few sections will have a cash game focus. Beating cash games is the path to profitability in all formats, so learning how to win in these will benefit all players greatly.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback is definitely a make or break position in your lineup. While an above average day from your quarterback(s) may not get you the win, a miserable day from your QB position will usually result in a loss.

That is why it’s best to spend at quarterback. From week-to-week, targeting a high priced QB vs. a poor pass defense is almost always the right move. Of course, there are a lot of other factors when it comes to choosing the right option, but paying up for premium options will give you a nice base of points for your cash game lineups.

Looking deeper at the QB, mobile quarterbacks have begun to separate themselves from the pack due to the way they can score heavily across most sites. That isn’t to say a Tom Brady or a Peyton Manning or another top pocket passer will not be an excellent plenty of the time. It’s simply that there’s more value in choosing quarterbacks who offer a dual threat.

Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and even Michael Vick in his prime are good examples of the types of player you want to target. Their ability to win games and their overall skill may vary, but their running potential will add an extra scoring punch to your lineups.

Passing yards and passing touchdowns are worth fewer points than rushing and receiving touchdowns. For instance, a passing touchdown might be worth four points while a receiving or rushing TD is worth six. Rushing yards are also worth more than passing yards.

These extra points add up, especially when the matchup is right. The hybrid QB seems to be not only a growing trend in the game itself, but also one that fantasy players can take advantage of.

Running Backs

QBs may be number one when it comes to positional consistency, but running backs are a close second. A running back with a terrific matchup will usually see a heavy workload, especially if the offense is run-first, or the team has a late lead. Their results are far more predictable compared to those of receivers or tight ends.

A full-time running back will usually get somewhere in the range of 12-25 touches, depending on game-flow and other factors. This outweighs the amount of targets a wide receiver sees during a game, and far dwarfs the vast majority of chances tight ends get. Quite simply, running backs touch the ball so much that they’re almost always a threat to score points.

Backs that catch balls out of the backfield or that work as a receiver have even more value. This extra potential should always be considered when building your lineup. Running backs that are assured goal line carriers also have more value. Goal-line only or short yardage backs don’t have as much potential, but can be targeted depending on price. A running back that gets the vast share of carries along with goal-line touches will be ideal, but normally you will have to pay up for these guys. Running backs should also be highly considered for utility spots in your lineups due to their consistency.

For that reason, middle-tier running backs make nice targets, and lower priced guys can also work in certain matchups. But, paying up for a big-time running back in a strong matchup makes plenty of sense.

Wide Receivers

Wide receivers aren’t nearly as consistent as the above two positions. Most often individual matchups are the difference when it comes to wide outs. Obviously, targeting the receiver in high powered passing offenses should be the aim, but pricing often makes this difficult.

Instead, try and look at it from the opposite angle. Cornerback vs. receiver isn’t exactly a one-on-one matchup, but it’s about as close as you are going to get on a football field, and targeting cornerbacks who seem to get beat every week is an excellent starting point when picking receivers. Games with high totals and teams with notably porous pass defenses are excellent starting points to look for when filling your receiver spots.

It’s here that you’re likely to see one of the most significant differences between sites as the points awarded to receptions can vary dramatically. Most sites use “PPR”, or point-per-reception scoring. This gives an extra bump to possession receivers who garner a lot of targets and, in turn, receptions. Guys that are force-fed the ball can have excellent games, even if they don’t manage to get into the end zone.

Should you pay up for elite wide receivers? Some matchups may justify it, but it’s likely better to target middle-tier wide outs and spend a bit more time on your quarterbacks and running backs. It doesn’t mean you should never pay up for an elite receiver in an awesome matchup. If the matchup is excellent, go for it.

Finally, receivers who line up in the slot will often get a sub-par matchup at cornerback. While some teams will chase specific receivers around the field with their top cornerback, receivers that move around the formation or play primarily from the slot will often line up against the opposing team’s inferior defensive backs.

The nickel cornerback isn’t usually the best and has to run all over the field covering the opposing slot receiver. He generally won’t get as much help as the cornerback on the outside, and linebackers in the middle of the field can’t cover nearly as well as defensive backs.

Tight Ends

Tight end is a position where players can find some savings. Tight ends are tight ends. They do the dirty work blocking a lot of the time, and aren’t usually a substantial part of their team’s passing attack. Sure, some are heavy parts of an offensive gameplan, but most garner few targets and receiving yards.

Filling out your lineup with players you like, and then shopping around for a tight end with what’s left over in salary isn’t a bad way to build your team. We’ve talked about wide receiver inconsistency, and how they’re not nearly as reliable for points as running backs. Well, that goes tenfold for tight ends. They see even fewer targets, and their points vary wildly from week-to-week.

With that said, it does make sense to pay up for an elite tight end who is utilized like a top-tier wide out. Guys like Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham are essentially the number one receivers on their teams, even though they are tight ends.

Looking at them as a WR is suitable, but be sure to adjust your budget for each position appropriately. Also, do not play two tight ends. They’re easily the least valuable offensive position.

Kickers

Depending on the site, there may or may not be a kicker spot. I personally am not a fan of kickers, either in daily or in yearly fantasy leagues, so I prefer to play at a site that doesn’t require filling out that position on the roster.

If your site does offer this spot, then ideally you want to find a high scoring game and pick a kicker with exceptional accuracy. In truth, it’s quite rare that I would even consider taking a kicker for less than the minimum price. Perhaps if I had extra salary to spare, and could make no improvements to other positions, it would be acceptable to pay up and take a top kicker.

Grab a minimum priced kicker when the rest of your lineup is filled out and move on. There is no need to waste time worrying about this position.

Defense

Depending on the site, choosing your defense can either be extremely influential, or simply another area like the kicker, where you’re looking merely to “punt.” Defensive scoring is something that should be looked at closely at each site, along with the other scoring rules.

It can certainly make sense to pay up for an excellent defense in an awesome matchup, but there is usually terrific value to be had on the other end as well. Defense is the most scoring-dependent roster spot, and its importance varies hugely from site to site.

GPP Strategy

Guaranteed Prize Pools (or GPPs) are the largest in the NFL and are growing rapidly every single year. As I mentioned above, a strong cash game strategy will give you a chance at consistent profits every week. But, GPPs offer that X-factor, and give you the chance to hit for big money.

Strategies for GPPs will differ dramatically from those in cash games, because beating a large field of players is decidedly different to beating a single opponent heads up. In these large fields, it’s the lesser-owned players that will propel owners to victory.

Does that mean you should pivot off elite values in large field tournaments? Not necessarily, but being contrarian in GPPs certainly helps. Ideally, players should always want to field the best possible team in relation to salary, but teams that win these tournaments almost always have players who are severely under-owned.

When building cash game lineups, the strategy centers on choosing consistent and reliable scorers to fill your lineup. GPP strategy is quite different. In fact, it’s all about looking for that monster day. Boom or bust guys who could explode for big points or just as easily put up a goose egg are the guys you want to target in GPPs.

This is where the cash game strategy sort of goes out the window. Spending big at wide receiver, going cheap at QB, and other strategies that aren’t generally recommended for cash games can all be profitable in GPPs.

Going against the field for the sake of being contrarian isn’t the goal. Instead, it’s looking for players whose stars are aligning just right in a given week.

Other Strategies

Thursday Night Leagues

When I first began playing daily fantasy NFL, I would almost always forgo playing in Thursday Night leagues. I wanted to research my teams a bit better and get ready for the Sunday contests. It turns out I have been missing out on facing some of the worst fields around. As a rule, NFL contests will have the least experienced competitors compared to other sports, simply because of the league’s massive popularity.

The league’s insistence on weekly Thursday Night games (something the NFLPA hates) means there is a sizeable slate of games across DFS sites that start each week on Thursdays. A large portion of fantasy players taking part in Thursday Night games are doing so for the simple reason that they want to watch their guys in action on a Thursday Night. Smart play and knowledgeable lineups are rarely at the forefront of their minds.

Fading players in the Thursday Night game and rostering players in Sunday and Monday Night contests will give you an edge on your competition in these contests. You will have to be careful to roster players that have no injury questions heading into the weekend, however.

There’s always a chance that a player in that game may have a monster day, and your team could be hurt because you avoided the game. Most of the time, though, things will turn out in your favor. You will be surprised how many rosters have a piece of the Thursday Night contest, despite it being a game to avoid on so many occasions.

Injuries

More so than in any other sport, injury news is vitally important. Teams can designate a player with a “probable” or “questionable” tag in regards to their chances of suiting up, but these should be taken with a grain of salt. Sunday is full of game-time decisions, and players sometimes make the inactive list out of nowhere. Some players may suit up but will be playing with a snap-count or other restrictions.

Reading social media, sports blogs, and local beat writers is crucial to keeping up with injury news and knowing which players will benefit. If you see that a top running back is scratched shortly before kickoff, look to roster his backup. There is always going to be people that gloss over this stuff, and who end up with injured players in their lineups. Keep an eye on any news leading up to kickoff, and don’t make the same mistake.

Understand Variance

Compared to other sports, the number of weeks or contests in the NFL is quite small. For example, the Major League Baseball season is a marathon-esque 162 games, and the NBA has an 82-game regular season. In just over half a month, those sports will eclipse the 17-week NFL regular season.

The luck factor in daily fantasy is certainly significant, and that’s even truer for the relatively small-sample size of an NFL season. A tackle at the one-yard line, or a bad bounce or missed call can be the difference between a winning and a losing week. Trust your weekly research and positive results should come your way.

To win in any daily fantasy sports contest, a lot of things have to come together. You have to read game flow and Vegas information correctly, interpret pace, usage and other stats right, anticipate what others will do with their lineups (game theory) -- and, of course, the players have to execute.

Your lineups need the right combination of value, upside and safety to be in contention. I'll focus mainly on cash games -- those where half of the field roughly doubles their money -- but you can apply much of this information to guaranteed prize pool (GPP) games too.

Game theory is somewhat (though not entirely) de-emphasized in cash contests, but that doesn't mean there isn't plenty of strategy involved. How do you mix those elements into your point guard (PG), shooting guard (SG), small forward (SF), power forward (PF), center (C), guard (G), forward (F), and utility (U) lineup slots? While the specifics will shift depending on the slate of NBA games, there are some general guidelines we can apply.

Because NBA DFS is more predictable than, say, MLB DFS, you have some rough goal in mind for fantasy scoring -- you'd ideally see your DraftKings lineup score around 250-300 fantasy points, depending on the contest and the slate. With eight roster spots to fill, you have $6,250 per player and would be targeting about 35 fantasy points per player.

However, all things are rarely, if ever, equal in a DFS slate, so we'll be spending well above and below the average most nights with shifting point expectations too. In fact, we'll pay up for stars who we can rely on to return about 5X value (so a $10,000 guy should get 50 fantasy points), while we'll hope our value plays can return closer to 7-8X value (so a $4,000 player could go for 30 fantasy points).

You can already see that value and upside can go hand in hand. The goal is for the entire lineup to exceed value, so it's crucial to fit the pieces together in such a way that you're maximizing each slot in terms of safety, value or upside and not compromising anywhere. In NBA more than MLB, for sure, and NFL to some extent, your lineup really is only as strong as its weakest player.

Point guard

The most elite position in basketball is PG, and any given night, you will have a bevy of high-priced options from which to choose. I will almost always play a top PG in cash games. They simply have the ball in their hands more than anyone else, and with the emphasis on assists in DraftKings scoring (1.5 fantasy points/assists), you need a PG who distributes and scores. If you can target an elite PG on a high-paced team, it's even better, since fantasy points correlate well with pace only for PG and PF.

Russell Westbrook, John Wall and Stephen Curry are the top PGs in the league -- in skill and salary -- and most nights it's difficult to make an argument against them other than price. Note that even in a pace mismatch (e.g., Warriors vs. Memphis), elite point guards produce at their typically high rate fantasy-wise.

The next group of PGs includes guys like Kyle Lowry, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas, each of whom is priced in a lower tier but has nearly as much upside as the top three. They make excellent tournament plays and are usually a viable alternative to the most elite point guards when you have to spend up elsewhere.

Key strategy

• Pay up for safety with upside at the PG slot

Shooting guard

Without multiposition eligibility, the SG position can be a nightmare. It often feels like James Harden and ... everyone else. Because most shooting guards are on the floor to score and shooting can be streaky even for the best players, it's hard to consistently pay up at this position. It's like the tight end position in NFL DFS; you have Rob Gronkowski, then a second tier of high-upside/low-floor guys, and then the punt plays.

Every DFS player has had a 'why, oh, why did I fade Harden?!' night or 10 -- and with good reason. He's the only SG to rank top five in player efficiency rating (PER) and usage (USG) last season (and top 10 in both over the plast three seasons).

There is actually a pretty solid second tier of SGs, consisting of Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Klay Thompson Bradley Beal, CJ McCollum and DeMar DeRozan, but it can be hard to pay their salaries, knowing that the double-double or triple-double upside that earns you bonus points is more likely coming from the PG or PF position. When I'm secure in my value plays at other positions and Harden isn't an option, any of those players just listed who are in a good matchup have nice upside and a pretty high floor.

The other alternative at SG is to go cheap. There are always guys like Lou Williams, Seth Curry, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Will Barton/Gary Harris, Evan Fournier and Tyler Johnson, who will be near minimum salary getting starters' minutes in favorable matchups. Try to target guys who shoot 3s often and well. If I'm not using Harden, I will try to find that cheap SG who I think can put up 25-plus fantasy points.

Key strategies:

• James Harden or bust!

• Find value in a minimum priced SG who starts in a good defensive matchup, preferably in a game with a high point total

Small forward

Small forward is sometimes even worse than shooting guard in terms of positional scarcity. We have Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James at the top of a pretty narrow pyramid. Sometimes Antetokounmpo is SF eligible and I'd include him in the top tier. The thing is that you're only going to be able to pay top dollar for maybe two players in a cash game lineup. In a tournament, you can get three or four if you go true stars and scrubs, but most times you'll want more balance.

In a second tier, Paul George, Gordon Hayward and Carmelo Anthony are available. They are generally high-floor cash game SF plays when there's no one demanding $11K or more on the slate. SF is the most volatile spot in your roster, where a lot of players can either go off or do nothing in the same amount of minutes from night to night.

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A few cheap plays to have on your radar to start the season are Justin Anderson, TJ Warren, Joe Ingles, Maurice Harkless and Trevor Ariza. I'm not typically trying to hit a home run with the SF slot -- I want a reasonable 4-6X return on my investment here.

Key strategies:

• Don't hamstring your lineup with a top-tier SF unless there is ample value on the slate

• Find value and safety in a starting SF who contributes steady points, rebounds and assists while being on the floor for his defense

Power forward

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Most of what I said about PG applies to the PF position too -- and by that, I mean it's not a roster spot I waste on a flier. PF is a key component of your stable floor and high-upside roster construction process. That doesn't mean you have to pay up for Anthony Davis every time he plays -- though a case can be made for doing so when he's healthy.

You want to exploit poor-rebounding opponents, target guys who shoot 3s, and lock up a double-double here. Draymond Green, Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Julius Randle and Kevin Love all fall into that category most nights and can be had for far less salary than Davis. These are guys who easily get you 30 fantasy points and can get you 50-plus.

Key strategy:

• You want safety and upside from your PF slot

Center

Because many people start building their lineup from the top down (e.g., in the order I've discussed the positions here), a lot of lineups forego a star center. The salary cap has simply been spent on the other positions, most likely PG and PF. However, some of the best fantasy players and highest PER guys in the league are centers.

DeMarcus Cousins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Hassan Whiteside, Rudy Gobert, and Nikola Jokic were all top-26 overall players in terms of PER last year (Jokic led all centers in the statistic). Targeting blocks is a good way to increase your score in a hurry, as they're emphasized in DraftKings' scoring (two points for each block). Not surprisingly, all the guys I just mentioned were top 20 in the league in blocks as well.

So I like to take the cheapest of this bunch, provided he's not in a terrible matchup, but there are a few guys to dip down for. Gorgui Dieng, Alex Len, Myles Turner, Turner and DeAndre Jordan are a few cheaper guys who are reliable when starting/healthy.

Key strategy:

• Center provides great upside if you target the right stats and shouldn't be an afterthought in roster construction

Essential Strategies For Winning At Daily Fantasy Sports

Guard

Most nights, your G roster slot should go to a second PG. I like to use a starter on a transitional team like the Nuggets, 76ers, Lakers, Magic, Suns or Timberwolves. Young guys who play heavy minutes for low salaries at a high pace make for a nice way to round out your lineups. Elfrid Payton, Jamal Murray and Lonzo Ball fall into this category, and every season there are others who develop, like Tyler Ulis and Kris Dunn, thanks to injuries to players ahead of them on their depth chart.

It's also possible to go with a backup PG who is starting due to rest, illness or injury. In general, backup guards make better fantasy replacements than backup forwards or centers, which often end up as shared rotations. Examples you can trust include Yogi Ferrell, Ish Smith, Cory Joseph, Norman Powell and rookie De'Aaron Fox. This is where paying attention to the last-minute news is critical to building your best lineup.

Key strategy:

• Get value and upside from a cheap starting PG from a fast-paced team on the rise

Forward

Focus on minutes here. A starter who isn't elite might work -- a guy like Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick Favors, Aaron Gordon, Ersan Ilyasova, Ryan Anderson, or Harrison Barnes is a solid play with additional upside in a high-paced game or favorable defensive matchup.

A riskier move is to use a bench forward in a potential blowout game where you can imagine the star starter resting. I don't like to take this strategy until I get a good read on who the backup really is and what the team/coaching tendencies are toward resting guys in blowouts.

Key strategy:

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• Go for safety with the forward spot by targeting minutes and matchups

Utility

By default, you're filling the utility spot with the best player available, given the amount of salary cap you have left. Just a couple of thoughts here:

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• If you're really reaching for a bench player who will pay off his price only if the game script goes a certain way or someone gets hurt because that's all you can afford, you need to make adjustments somewhere else. Remember the idea is for the whole lineup to work together to maximize your score. It's only as strong as its weakest player.

• Whomever you end up with in the utility spot as you build the lineup doesn't necessarily have to stay there. If you can take advantage of a late swap, which is especially valuable in NBA DFS, because the lineups for west coast games come out late, do so. Make sure to give yourself the most flexibility in the event of an unexpected scratch by putting players from late (west coast) games in your utility, G or F slots as much as possible. That doesn't mean you have to target a late-game player on purpose -- just rearrange things so that if you find out your SG isn't playing at 9:45 p.m. ET, you can replace him with more than just an SG-eligible player.

While I've emphasized matchups here several times, be careful at the very beginning of the season. Some players and teams provide good or bad defensive matchups year after year, but many are in flux due to new team compositions, new roles, age, etc.

Beware of the red or green opponent rank (OPRK) code on daily fantasy sites -- it can be very misleading. It's important to do your own research and to take any dramatic stats with a grain of salt for the first few weeks of the season at least.