Basketball Over And Under
Posted : admin On 4/6/2022
“Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule”
Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach
2002
Basketball total points hot volumes. In basketball, playing defense means trying to stop your opponent from scoring. The rules of basketball spell out how and under what circumstances the defense can attempt to stop offensive players.
The following is a brief summary of a 2002 “Over/Under” (Totals) study conducted by two economist, Rodney Paul and Andrew Weinbach. They uncover and interesting Over/Under patterns Their paper entitle, “Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule,” appeared in The Journal of Sports Economics. This 2002 study focuses on “total” bets, wagers on the total # of points scored by the home and visiting team. They look at all the total bets from 1979-2000 (4,589 Games). The authors theorizes that people enjoy rooting for scoring so the total should be artificially inflated in games that have higher than average total. Mostly games that feature two high scoring teams. As the table below demonstrates, they found interesting and profitable results.
THE “UNDER” IN THE NFL 1979-200 (4,589 Games)
| “Under” Win % | |
| All games (average pre-game total = 40.3) | 51.0% |
| Games with pre-game total of 45.5 or higher | 55.1% |
| Games with pre-game total of 46.5 or higher | 57.0% |
| Games with pre-game total of 47.5 or higher | 58.7% |
Totals wagers are more commonly referred to as an Over/Under bet. The name of the wager is interchangeable and both are used in sportsbooks and in the media. A totals bet is one of the easiest and most popular bets to make in the sportsbook. The only more popular bet is picking winners. Betting totals are available for most major professional sports such as football, basketball, baseball, and hockey.
In most cases, when wagering on a total the bettor is simply choosing whether the total number of points scored by both teams will be over or under the listed total of points to be scored. That’s it. The winner and loser of the game don’t matter in a totals bet. The only thing that matters with this kind of bet is the number of points (runs, goals, etc.) scored.
Before a game begins betting over or under the total points scored is usually a -110 wager. Bettors will wager $110 to win $100 for a pre-game totals bet. If bettors wager a lot more on one side of the total, the moneyline might change before the actual point total moves. At a certain point, the sportsbook will reset the total and the moneyline will move back to -110.
Here’s an example from this past Super Bowl as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 31-9.
- The over/under, or total, for this game was 54.4 points. Bettors who wagered on the Over needed the total score to be 55 points or higher. Anything 54 points and below would have been a winner for Under bettors.
- With the Bucs having scored 31 points and the Chiefs having scored just 9 points, the total wound up being 40 points – well below the set over/under of 54.4 and a win for Under bettors.
- If the total of this game was 54.0 points and the final score added up to exactly 54 points (38-16, for example) the bet would be a “push” and bets would be refunded.
Like all kinds of sports betting options, totals bets have expanded. Betting a total is no longer only available for pre-game bets. There may be totals available for partial games (quarters or periods), individual teams, and during in-play and live wagering. A partial game total might be a wager on how many points will be scored in a certain time period. Meanwhile, in-play bets could just be an adjusted total for the entire game.
Over/under bets
Even though Totals and Over/Under may be used interchangeably for scoring, there’s another way to make Over/Under bets. An Over/Under bet can also be a proposition bet where there’s a wager made on a specific occurrence. A boxing match is a good example since scoring isn’t quite the same as the major sports:
Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor
The fight will last 9.5 rounds
- Over (-110)
- Under (-110)
Floyd Mayweather defeated Conor McGregor by technical knockout in the 10th round and over bettors won this wager. Had either fighter won the match earlier the under would have cashed since the result would have happened in the ninth round or sooner.
Ncaa Basketball Over And Under Picks
Today there are Over/Under bets available for a number of sports beyond the major North American sports. Fights often have how many rounds will be complete while auto racing might have the number of laps finished by a driver. The possibilities for Over/Under wagers are prop bets are seemingly only limited by the imagination. Sportsbook operators continue to expand their betting menu with unique bets that include new Totals and Over/Under options.